From Alfred Thayer Mahan's 1890 Influence of Sea Power Upon History --
It is not therefore a vain expectation, as many think, to look for useful lessons in the history of sailing-ships as well as in that of galleys. Both have their points of resemblance to the modern ship ; both have also points of essential difference, which make it impossible to cite their experiences or modes of action as tactical precedents to be followed. But a precedent is different from and less valuable than a principle. The former may be originally faulty, or may cease to apply through change of circumstances ; the latter has its root in the essential nature of things, and, however various its application as conditions change, remains a standard to which action must conform to attain success. War has such principles ; their existence is detected by the study of the past, which reveals them in successes and in failures, the same from age to age. Conditions and weapons change ; but to cope with the one or successfully wield the others, respect must be had to these constant teachings of history in the tactics of the battlefield, or in those wider operations of war which are comprised under the name of strategy.
Fascinating point.
Mahan is encouraging the study of past types of warfare to predict the development of future types of warfare.
He distinguishes between precedent, which is how things have been done in the past, and principles, which "have their root in the essential nature of things... [and thus] remains a standard to which action must conform to attain success."
Considering that we now live in a world with such fast innovation, perhaps looking back to eras when people were figuring out how technology will impact society would be wise. Mahan notes that particular tactics from galley ships and sail ships will not necessarily be valid any more, and points like being upwind from an enemy vessel are not necessarily valid any more. But he says you can deduce principles from those, like the fact that being able to choose whether to give battle or not is most valuable --
The relative positions of two sailing-ships, or fleets, with reference to the direction of the wind involved most important tactical questions, and were perhaps the chief care of the seamen of that age. To a superficial glance it may appear that since this has become a matter of such indifference to the steamer, no analogies to it are to be found in present con- ditions, and the lessons of history in this respect are valueless. A more careful consideration of the distinguishing characteristics of the lee and the weather "gage," directed to their essential features and disregarding secondary details, will show that this is a mistake. The distinguishing feature of the weather-gage was that it conferred the power of giving or refusing battle at will...
An interesting work, overall. It reads a little dry at times and the lessons have to be extracted from it, but it's interesting if you're willing to do that sort of "meta-reading" and constantly ask where you can apply it details.